TOKYO -- Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is shedding momentum going into the Oct. 27 general election and may lose its majority in the House of Representatives, according to an analysis of a special Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll and findings from the paper's reporting.

There are 289 single-seat constituencies and 176 proportional representation bloc seats up for grabs in the country's 50th lower house election. The Oct. 22-23 poll found that it is uncertain whether the LDP, together with its junior coalition partner Komeito, will retain a majority of the total 465 seats, contrary to the results of an opinion survey conducted on Oct. 15 and 16.

The LDP is facing headwinds over its factional slush funds scandal, and may not be able to win even 200 seats, let alone a majority of 233. Meanwhile, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) is projected to significantly increase its seat count from 98 before the lower house was dissolved, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) is also on track to double its seat tally in the chamber.

However, voter intent in nearly 40% of constituencies remained unclear in the most recent poll, meaning that the situation could change going forward.

Initially, the LDP looked to have a strong lead in all the single-seat constituencies in seven of Japan's 47 prefectures, but that number has now dropped to four: Yamagata, Tottori, Kochi and Kumamoto. Of the 289 single-seat electoral districts, the LDP has an advantage in around 110, while another 40-plus are heavily contested. The party's early momentum has also diminished in the proportional representation bloc, with a strong possibility that the party will win only around 60 seats. The LDP is now expected to send between 171 and 225 seats in total to the lower house.

Komeito is maintaining its lead in four of the 11 constituencies where it has fielded candidates, and four constituencies are closely contested. Even party leader Keiichi Ishii is facing a fierce battle in his Saitama No. 14 district. It remains to be seen whether Komeito will be able to secure the total of 32 seats it held prior to the campaign's launch.

The CDP is leading in many constituencies in prefectures including Hokkaido, Miyagi, Fukushima, Niigata and Saga, and is eyeing a significant seat surge. The party is virtually certain to increase its lower house caucus from the 39 lawmakers elected in the previous race's proportional representation bloc.

Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party) is seeing strong support in Osaka Prefecture, where the party is based, but is struggling in the proportional representation bloc. It may fail to retain the 43 seats it held before the election was called.

The Japanese Communist Party has made one constituency in Okinawa Prefecture a close race, but the party's position in the poll suggests that its seat count is likely to fall below the nine it secured in the previous election.

The DPP is gaining momentum nationwide and could see a threefold increase from the total of seven seats it had before the election was called.

Reiwa Shinsengumi is riding a relative popularity surge, allowing them to potentially double their number of seats from three. The Social Democratic Party is certain to retain its single seat, and there is a chance that the right-wing Sanseito will win a seat as well. The Conservative Party of Japan is likely to win multiple seats.

(Japanese original by Tetsuya Kageyama, Political News Department)