OSAKA -- Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party) failed to maintain its 43 seats in the Oct. 27 House of Representatives election, lacking the momentum it had during the 2021 lower house election when the number of seats it gained more than tripled.

While Nippon Ishin dominated single-seat constituencies in its home base of Osaka Prefecture and secured 38 seats in total, it did not achieve the expected results in constituencies outside of western Japan's Kansai region or in the proportional representation segment of the election. The party's goal of becoming the leading opposition party slipped further away, suggesting a need to reassess its strategy.

Party leader Nobuyuki Baba emphasized at a press conference in the city of Osaka that its "primary goal is to prevent the ruling coalition from retaining a majority. If that is achieved, we can take pride in having played a part." He countered concerns about stagnation in seat numbers by saying, "We weren't fixated on the number of seats." Meanwhile, secretary-general Fumitake Fujita admitted, "I take full responsibility for all the negative aspects and accept all opinions," hinting at a difference in views within the party.

Nippon Ishin had previously achieved its target of securing more than 600 seats in local councils in the unified local elections held in April 2023, and has been steadily expanding its influence. At a party convention in March, Baba declared that Nippon Ishin "would become an alternative ruling party to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)" and adopted a policy to achieve both the position of leading opposition party and to prevent the ruling coalition from keeping a majority in the Oct. 27 lower house election. The party had since consistently refused to coordinate candidates with other opposition parties, fielding its own candidates in 163 electoral districts nationwide.

However, the tide has turned against Nippon Ishin. The 2025 World Expo in Osaka, which the party actively promoted, has been harshly criticized for its ballooning public expenditures. Regarding the revision of the Political Funds Control Act, the agreement it reached with the LDP in May to disclose receipts of policy activity expenses after 10 years was perceived as a step back from the "self-defeating reform" that the party touts.

Additionally, the party's delayed response to allegations of power harassment by former Hyogo Gov. Motohiko Saito, whom it endorsed, has also led to a backlash.

Baba has maintained a stance of "critical support" toward the ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito, while repeatedly expressing criticism against the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP). As the ruling coalition has lost a majority, Nippon Ishin will likely receive calls for cooperation from the LDP and the CDP.

In the press conference, Baba denied any consideration of joining a coalition government centered around the LDP-Komeito alliance or the CDP, stating, "I'm not thinking about it at all." However, regarding the scheduled extraordinary Diet session to elect Japan's new prime minister, he said, "We will respond to the situation as we see how it develops," adding that the possibility of Nippon Ishin holding the casting vote "is not zero." Nonetheless, there is growing discontent within the party regarding Baba's leadership for inviting the poor election showing even amid a backlash against the LDP, which could lead to a change in the party's executives.

(Japanese original by Itsuo Tokubo and Takuya Suzuki, Osaka City News Department)