TOKYO -- Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and former prime minister, may return to the premier's post since the Japanese version of a "hung parliament" -- a situation in which no single party or coalition has a majority -- has emerged as a result of the Oct. 27 House of Representatives election.

The ruling and opposition parties began bargaining for a government framework on Oct. 28 because the Constitution stipulates that a special Diet session must be held within 30 days of the lower house election to choose a new prime minister.

What should be noted is that the Constitution only states that the new prime minister "shall be designated ... by a resolution of the Diet" (Article 67) but does not require a "majority" (at least 233 in the 465-seat lower house). According to the Rules of the House of Representatives, which stipulate the details, if no one receives a majority of votes, the person who receives a majority in a runoff of the top two vote-getters is designated as the new prime minister. If there are many abstentions in the runoff vote, the new prime minister could be chosen even without a majority.

Counting the seats held by each party from this perspective, it is possible that the CDP's Noda, Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) head Yuichiro Tamaki, or Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party) leader Nobuyuki Baba may be elected the new prime minister, depending on discussions among the parties.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito have a total of 215 seats, and even if they add Katsuei Hirasawa, Koichi Hagiuda and Yasutoshi Nishimura, who had not been endorsed by the LDP because of their roles in the slush fund scandal but won their constituencies in the latest election, the coalition's total seat count would remain at 218.

On the other hand, if three opposition parties -- the CDP, DPFP and Nippon Ishin -- can work together to elect a new prime minister, their total number of seats would be 214. If all of five opposition independents -- Nobuyuki Fukushima, Hayato Nakamura, Jin Matsubara, Keiro Kitagami and Shuji Kira -- cooperate with them, the number would be 219, one more than the total number of LDP-Komeito coalition members plus the three unendorsed winners. If all the other forces abstain, a new prime minister from the opposition will be designated.

However, there are three other independents close to the ruling coalition -- Hiroshige Seko, Ken Hirose and Satoshi Mitazono -- and if they take the coalition's side, the total number of seats would be 221, more than the three-party opposition alliance. That said, the three were elected by defeating candidates backed by the LDP, so the party would have to go through the trouble of making their "antiparty acts" unquestionable in order to seek their cooperation.

Reiwa Shinsengumi with nine seats, the Japanese Communist Party with eight seats, Sanseito with three seats, the Conservative Party of Japan with three seats, and the Social Democratic Party with one seat are effectively counted out of these government framework calculations since they have significant policy differences with the major parties. However, if the three main opposition parties were to come together as one, these minor opposition parties could become part of the government in the process of majority rule.

(Japanese original by Shigeyuki Tanaka, Political News Department)