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Japan PM Ishiba's minority government to struggle to pursue policy agenda
MAINICHI   | Nopember 12, 2024
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Shigeru Ishiba stands after being reelected as Japan's prime minister in a runoff vote cast during a lower house plenary session in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024. (Kyodo)
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Two weeks after Japan's ruling coalition lost its majority in the general election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was reelected on Monday, but his minority government is expected to struggle with advancing its policy agenda.
While some members of his Liberal Democratic Party have urged Ishiba to step down, the reality is that no lawmakers want to take on the leadership now as the LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, cannot control the powerful House of Representatives.
With the political situation likely to remain highly uncertain, some LDP members say the only option is to compel Ishiba to stay on as premier and steer the government through this turbulent period as a lame-duck Cabinet.
Many LDP lawmakers, however, believe the party is unlikely to win the House of Councillors election scheduled for next summer if Ishiba remains at the helm, with speculation growing that his popularity will not rebound by then.
Attention has turned to when Ishiba might resign before the upper house election, as his position is threatened by lawmakers both within and outside the LDP, with a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet likely to pass given the opposition bloc's majority.
Political analysts say Ishiba might step down as early as March next year in exchange for a commitment from opposition parties to support the initial budget for the fiscal year from April, a draft of which is slated to be mapped out by his Cabinet in late December.
In the Oct. 27 election, seats held by the LDP and Komeito dropped from 288 to 215, marking their first loss of majority control in 15 years. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition, saw its seats surge from 98 to 148.
Both the LDP-led coalition and the CDPJ fell short of the 233-seat majority line. The Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki, quadrupled its seats to 28, while the Japan Innovation Party slipped from 43 to 38.
The election took place as the LDP faced intense scrutiny over revelations that some of its factions, including one led by Ishiba's predecessor, Fumio Kishida, failed to report portions of income from fundraising events and created slush funds.
Hiroshi Shiratori, a professor in political science at Hosei University, said Ishiba should "take responsibility" as the LDP failed to achieve his goal of retaining a combined majority in the 465-seat lower house with Komeito.
Although parliamentary proceedings may stagnate and become dysfunctional as the opposition camp is also unable to unite to form a government due largely to policy disparities, Ishiba appears to have no "sense of crisis," Shiratori added.
But a senior LDP lawmaker said Ishiba, who dissolved the lower house for a snap election only eight days after he became premier on Oct. 1, has not faced severe criticism within his party, as many members hope he will address the fallout from the scandal.
"For a while, it would be better for the LDP to leave it to Ishiba to coordinate with opposition parties on tedious political funding reforms in a bid to contain the slush funds scandal before the upper house election," the lawmaker said.
Ishiba, meanwhile, has been working to sustain his government through policy-specific agreements with opposition parties like the DPP, which has gained support from the younger generation with its pledge to boost disposable income.
The DPP has promised to raise the income threshold for paying tax from 1.03 million yen ($6,700) to 1.78 million yen, while the Finance Ministry has apparently opposed it, arguing the proposal would reduce annual tax revenues by about 7.6 trillion yen.
Ishiba is believed to be reluctant to implement tax cuts to fund the social security system amid Japan's aging society and its status as the most fiscally strained among major advanced economies, blurring the outlook for his negotiations with Tamaki.
A government source said that unless Ishiba accepts Tamaki's demands, including a consumption tax reduction aimed at boosting private spending, the DPP will not support any bill or budget the LDP submits to parliament in the future.
"If Ishiba sticks to his political beliefs, he cannot survive the potential passage of a no-confidence motion against his Cabinet, but if he abandons them, he cannot fulfill what he has set out to do," the source said, adding, "Either way, he is in a predicament."
For the next couple of months, Ishiba might concentrate on foreign policy by attending international conferences and seeking an in-person meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, as diplomacy is less affected by the Diet moves, the source added.
(By Tomoyuki Tachikawa)
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