The reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has emphasized an "America first" approach, has raised concerns over a possible escalation of tensions with China. Situations that could invite global turmoil should be avoided.

Trump has expressed his intention to impose a blanket tariff of 60% on goods from China. During his first term beginning, he imposed tariffs of up to 25%. If he actually went ahead with the measure, China would inevitably respond with retaliatory tariffs.

If the two countries were to enter another trade war, the impact on China's economy, which is suffering from a real estate downturn, would be huge. Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a congratulatory message to Trump that "both countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation," apparently cautioning him against the weaponization of tariffs.

The United States would not escape from such action either. High tariffs would push up the price of imports, and could reignite inflation. Trump needs to act with caution.

Concerns over comments on Taiwan

Trump's stance toward China reveals a diplomatic strategy in which he is willing to sacrifice international rules and cooperation with other countries to protect his country's economy and industries. This approach is a shift from that of the administration of President Joe Biden, which has prioritized values such as democracy and the rule of law and strengthened cooperation with allies.

However, diplomacy that overemphasizes practical gains can result in frayed bonds with allies, and create openings for authoritarian states. Regional and global stability would be threatened.

An issue that has come into focus is Trump's approach to Taiwan. During his election campaign, Trump stated in an interview with a media outlet that he would impose additional tariffs on China of "150% to 200%" if it were to "go into Taiwan." He essentially suggested that tariffs would deter China from using force. At the same time, Trump said that Taiwan "took all of (the American) chip business" and stated, "They should pay us for defense." These statements starkly contrast with those of the Biden administration, which positioned Taiwan as a partner in the democratic camp, underscoring its strong support for the island territory.

This series of statements could send the wrong message to China that the U.S. would not get deeply involved in the Taiwan issue.

China, meanwhile, has clearly stated that it would not rule out use of force to unify Taiwan with the mainland. In May and October this year, it conducted large-scale military exercises near the island. It is believed that this was in anticipation of a maritime blockade.

In Taiwan, speculation that the U.S. military would not intervene even if China used force against it has been smoldering. Trump is said to be reluctant to continue supporting Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion, which could reinforce the suspicion over the U.S.' hesitant approach. This could work to the disadvantage of the administration of Lai Ching-te, chairman of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, who has made a point of not bowing to pressure from China, and shake its support base.

If China were to use force against Taiwan, it would drastically change the security environment in East Asia. The supply of advanced semiconductors from Taiwan, where production is concentrated, would be brought to a halt, and it would deal a blow to the global economy. Trump needs to recognize Taiwan's strategic importance.

Multilateral frameworks put to the test

The effects of a shift from a diplomatic strategy focusing on democracy and other such values go beyond Taiwan. If Washington doesn't show a tough stance toward Beijing's overbearing acts in the South China Sea and human rights issues in Hong Kong and ethnic minority areas, the situation will worsen.

On issues such as climate change and nuclear arms control, where efforts by the United States and China are key, cooperation would likely stall, which would have global repercussions.

The Biden administration has advanced dialogue with China from the perspective of crisis management, while also working to encircle China by means of alliances and multilateral frameworks.

Trump, meanwhile, could possibly place emphasis on bilateral relations and turn to "deals." If he uses such an approach with China, then multilateral frameworks' raisons d'etre would fade and the interests of allies would also be undermined.

China has cooperated with Russia to strengthen ties with emerging and developing nations collectively referred to as the Global South through the intergovernmental organization BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Eurasia. This hints at China's ambition to build a new global order not led by the U.S.

If the United States turns a blind eye to the behavior of authoritarian states willing to change the status quo by force and abandons its role as leader of the democratic camp, it will lose the trust of its allies.

The postwar international order has also benefited the United States. Trump should be aware of his responsibilities and advance diplomacy with China so that the foundations of this order are shaken no further.