TOKYO -- The number of babies born in Japan in 2024 is expected to be only about 690,000, according to one expert's recent estimate, falling below 700,000 for the first time since the government began compiling statistics in 1899.

The estimates once again highlighted the failure to stop the declining birth rate. Koji Okuda, chief researcher at the DTFA Institute, an economic think tank of the Deloitte Tohmatsu Group, made his calculations based on preliminary October Vital Statistics released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on Oct. 24 and other data.

The number of births from January to October was 603,638, down 4.9% from the same period last year. Okuda's estimate, calculated using data such as the average rate of decline from January to October this year and over the past 10 years, puts the number of births from January to December this year at approximately 720,000 on a preliminary basis, including foreign residents in Japan, and some 690,000 if the number is limited to Japanese nationals.

According to a mid-range estimate of the future population released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2023, the number of births in Japan will fall below 700,000 in 2038. Thus, it can be said that the birth rate is declining at a pace about 14 years faster than expected.

Okuda said, "Nationwide, the main factor is the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, but each region has its own unique challenges. More regionally appropriate measures to address the declining birth rate are needed."

(Japanese original by Aya Shiota, Lifestyle, Science & Environment News Department)