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Japan's main opposition party fails to boost clout after Oct. vote
MAINICHI   | Januari 3, 2025
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Shigeru Ishiba (L), head of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, shake hands in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024. Ishiba was reelected as prime minister earlier in the day. (Kyodo)
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's main opposition party, led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, has struggled to bolster its presence despite its breakthrough in the Oct. 27 House of Representatives election, in which the ruling bloc lost its majority.
Noda's Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has taken credit for pressuring Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to reform several controversial political funding systems during a one-month extraordinary parliamentary session that ended in late December.
Many pundits, however, have criticized the CDPJ for not capitalizing on its advances, saying the party has failed to present practical policy proposals that would attract public support, although it increased its seats in the election to 148 from 98.
Recently, the support rate for the CDPJ has been surpassed by the Democratic Party for the People, which quadrupled its seats in the 465-member lower house by promoting income-boosting policies some analysts describe as populist. The DPP holds only 28 seats.
Japan's first lower house election since 2021 took place as Ishiba's conservative Liberal Democratic Party faced intense scrutiny over revelations that some of its factions neglected to report portions of income from fundraising events and created slush funds.
Toru Yamada, a 57-year-old businessman, said, "Whether and how to reform the political funds system are not concerns of mine. I had hoped former Prime Minister Noda would pursue policies that improve our lives, but such expectations have not been met."
Even in the lower house election, the left-leaning CDPJ, which once sought to deepen cooperation with the Japanese Communist Party, failed to generate much confidence, as reflected in the number of seats it won, the analysts said.
Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, chief economist at the Sojitz Research Institute, said the CDPJ is "reported to have achieved a landslide victory" in the general election, but its proportional vote total "remained almost unchanged" from the past two opportunities.
In the election, each voter cast two ballots -- one to choose a candidate in a single-seat constituency and the other to select a party in the proportional representation section.
While the CDPJ gained seats by winning many single-seat constituencies against the LDP, its "brand power has not grown," Yoshizaki said, adding that Ishiba's party "simply self-destructed" amid the slush fund scandal.
The LDP had received between 16 million and 20 million votes in the previous five general elections, but its total fell below 15 million in 2024. With around 5 million "regular supporters" abandoning the party, it is "no surprise that it suffered a significant defeat," he said.
The proportional tally for the CDPJ, meanwhile, totaled only 11 million out of about 100 million voters in Japan, suggesting that the party is not "capable of aiming to take power," given its lackluster public popularity, Yoshizaki added.
The CDPJ has also struggled to draw attention to its policies, unlike the DPP, which has pledged to raise the income tax threshold from the current 1.03 million yen ($6,500) as part of its effort to boost people's disposable incomes.
During the lower house election campaign, the CDPJ abruptly promised to urge the Bank of Japan to redefine its inflation target from 2 percent to "above zero percent," fueling speculation that the party would accept BOJ rate hikes, hindering economic growth.
Political experts have questioned the CDPJ's ability to craft policies to shore up the economy at a time when inflation, due partly to the sharp depreciation of the yen, has made consumers, especially young people, more reluctant to spend.
Noda, who served as prime minister for more than a year through December 2012, grilled the LDP over the political funds scandal, forcing Ishiba to form a minority government, but he has not been able to broaden economic policy discussions with the ruling camp.
In addition, Noda has struggled to shed his image as a "fiscal hawk," stemming from his decision as prime minister to raise Japan's consumption tax from 5 percent to 10 percent to secure funding for social security amid an aging population.
PwC Consulting LLC, a think tank in Japan, said in a report that "politics and money" were certainly key election issues, but the DPP drew more support from voters in their 20s and 30s on the back of its policy to expand "take-home pay."
In 2025, the House of Councillors election, set for summer, is seen by Noda as a crucial step to unseat the LDP. He has been working to unify opposition candidates to stage one-on-one contests against ruling party contenders.
But the DPP has accelerated policy coordination with the LDP and its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, since the general election, probably thwarting Noda's attempt to solidify cooperation within the opposition bloc, a CDPJ lawmaker said.
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