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Trump's dealmaking instinct may be Nippon Steel merger's last hope
MAINICHI   | 10 jam yang lalu
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Nippon Steel Corp. CEO and Chairman Eiji Hashimoto attends a press conference in Tokyo on Jan. 7, 2025, a day after Nippon Steel said it filed a lawsuit seeking to nullify U.S. President Joe Biden's order to block its $14.1 billion acquisition of United States Steel Corp. (Kyodo)
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Appealing to Donald Trump's penchant for business dealmaking could provide a lifeline for Nippon Steel Corp.'s seemingly doomed $14.1 billion buyout of United States Steel Corp., some Japanese economists believe, giving some hope that the recently inaugurated president may overturn his predecessor's ban on the deal.
While Trump publicly opposed the proposal in the lead-up to his return to the White House, he may change his mind if he comes to see the potential economic benefits the deal, which would create the world's third-largest steelmaker by volume, can provide for the United States, Hiroshi Watanabe, a senior economist at Sony Financial Holdings Inc., said.
"Mr. Trump, who seeks investment from across the globe, should support the deal from a business perspective, as blocking it would contradict his 'America First' policies," Watanabe explained.
Joe Biden issued an order to block the planned buyout earlier in January on national security grounds, prompting Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel to file lawsuits seeking to protect their merger plan.
"We have a new president that will take a fresh look at this. We understand what his current views are, but he's a smart guy," a hopeful U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt told the CNBC business channel.
At the request of the Japanese company, U.S. authorities extended a deadline imposed on the two steelmakers to abandon the merger plan, which was announced in December 2023, to June 18 from the initial date of Feb. 2.
U.S. steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has made a counteroffer for U.S. Steel, with a plan to sell one of the purchased subsidiaries to rival Nucor Corp., CNBC reported.
But Cleveland-Cliffs' proposal does not stack up financially. Its offer price would be in the high $30s per share, far less than the valuation price put forward by Nippon Steel at $55 per share, according to the report.
In bidding for U.S. Steel, Nippon Steel outbid Cleveland-Cliffs which reportedly offered $35 per share.
Any purchase of U.S. Steel carries risk as it is struggling with fierce price competition from China and is expecting to report a loss for the October-December quarter on falling steel prices and weak European demand.
Analysts expect Nippon Steel would pump more resources into U.S. Steel than Cleveland-Cliffs, which may have no choice but to streamline operations at the Pittsburgh-based company.
The Japanese steelmaker, the world's fourth largest, could create more synergies and jobs while Cleveland-Cliffs, the world's 22nd biggest, may find it difficult to produce the same results, they say.
Makoto Ono, executive research officer at Mizuho Research & Technologies Ltd., said Trump would have to acknowledge that Nippon Steel's proposal is "more rational" than Cleveland-Cliffs' offer.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to play a key role in attempting to change Trump's mind by showing the benefits of the merger when he meets his counterpart, possibly as early as February, analysts say.
During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Biden, Kamala Harris, who succeeded him as the Democratic presidential nominee just a few months before the election, and Republican Trump all opposed the takeover in hopes of securing votes from members of the politically influential United Steelworkers union.
The Pittsburgh-based USW, with around 1.2 million members, represents workers in the steel and related industries, including U.S. Steel employees. It has voiced strong opposition to the acquisition by the Japanese company.
In the November election, Pennsylvania, where the union and U.S. Steel are headquartered, was a key battleground state. Founded in 1901, U.S. Steel was once a symbol of American economic power.
Biden described steelmaking as the "backbone of our nation" and said placing U.S. Steel under foreign control would create national security risks in terms of "supply chains."
Nippon Steel proposed plans to gain support for the deal such as additional investments in U.S. Steel's mills and moving its U.S. subsidiary's head office to Pittsburgh. But Biden decided on Jan. 3 to block the buyout.
Executives at Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel expressed hope that Trump might reconsider his predecessor's decision. But legal experts say that the court battles may be challenging.
Ishiba's talks with Trump will be crucial, Mizuho's Ono said, adding that "it is desirable that Mr. Ishiba emphasizes the deal as a new beginning and symbol of the Japan-U.S. alliance in the business sector."
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