TOKYO -- Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has announced details of the planned release of government-stored rice onto the market. The move comes amid high prices that have persisted since the "rice panic of the Reiwa era" struck Japan last summer. But will this measure ease the price surge?

"The agriculture minister said, 'Prices will stabilize when the newly harvested rice comes out,' yet prices have continued to rise," complained Mamoru Gomi, 65, president of the Super Izumi Narihira shop in Tokyo's Sumida Ward, criticizing the government.

The supermarket is popular among locals for its reasonably priced vegetables, fruits and meats, but even the cheapest rice sells for over 4,000 yen (about $26) for 5 kilograms. According to Gomi, rice prices have doubled compared to before the scarcity, with an increase of about 700 yen ($4.60) in just the past three weeks.

Gomi lamented, "Sales are less than half of what they were before the shortage. And because it's expensive and doesn't sell, we've reduced our orders." He expressed his hope that the release of the government's stored rice would lower prices by at least 1,000 yen for 5 kg.

A 73-year-old shopper shared her concerns, saying, "The rice is too expensive and this makes things difficult, but I have to buy it. I just want the prices to stabilize."

The price hike isn't limited to supermarkets. Major beef bowl chains and other restaurants are also raising prices one after another. The government's decision to release stored rice comes after seeing no stop in the ongoing rice price surge.

During the "rice panic" of the summer of 2024, rice shortages and significant price increases were observed at supermarkets and other retailers. According to the agriculture ministry, consumer purchases of rice since August had increased by 20-40% year-on-year, influenced by the emergency advisory on the heightened risk of a Nankai Trough earthquake, among other factors. With this spike in demand and the gap before the new 2024 rice harvest, the supply shortage suddenly became apparent.

The ministry's expectation that prices would stabilize with the new rice harvest was off the mark. Even though 2024 rice production increased by 180,000 metric tons from the previous year, the quantity received by major collectors decreased by about 210,000 tons. The ministry pointed out, "Small-scale collectors and farmers held onto stock, anticipating higher prices, which clogged distribution." The ministry sent a written request to national associations of collectors and wholesalers, asking them to ensure smooth rice distribution, but the effect of this move was minimal. Consequently, the ministry decided to release 210,000 tons of stored rice to compensate for the shortfall.

However, unlike last summer, there hasn't been a severe rice shortage at the retail level. Consumers and retailers are primarily concerned about how the release of stored rice will impact prices.

Yasufumi Miwa, a chief specialist at The Japan Research Institute Ltd., commented, "The release of 210,000 tons is an appropriate level to dispel fears of a rice shortage. Price competition will end, and to clear excess stock, prices will likely drop. By around April, retail prices could decrease by 30-40%."

Others, meanwhile, are expressing caution, with Toru Yamano, president of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (JA-Zenchu), stating Feb. 6, "The release of stockpiled rice should not affect the income of rice producers." Rice farmers have struggled to pass on rising production costs, including for fertilizers and fuel, but last summer finally allowed them to raise prices.

Nevertheless, one rice producer in the Tohoku region conceded, "Prices are really too high now. If the rice doesn't sell, no one benefits." They added, "It would have been better if the price had been passed on to consumers over several years in an acceptable form. The sudden spike was the biggest issue, and we need to prevent something like this from happening again."

(Japanese original by Yuki Machino, Shu Furukawa and Satoshi Fukutomi, Business News Department)