By Hiroshi Nakanishi, Kyoto University Professor

Ever since Donald Trump returned to the U.S. presidency, the world has never been stopped of being astonished by his approach. While it was widely expected that the second Trump administration would follow its leader's behest much more closely than the first, even those expectations have been? overshadowed by what is actually happening. Arguably, we are witnessing the most "heterodox" U.S. president since the end of World War II.

Four concentric circles shaping Trump worldview

Given the power of the United States, we cannot ignore Trump's worldview, whether we like it or not. Judging from what he has said and done, his world is made up of four concentric circles, and the closer circles are more important than the outside ones.

The innermost orbit is made up of domestic issues. As his favorite phrase "America First" suggests, building an order in the United States that aligns with his own values takes precedence over all other policies. He advocates the idea of downsizing the federal government, while placing federal organizations within his own value system. Trump seems to believe he can reject values such as diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), expel immigrants and use tariffs to reclaim the U.S. as a white-dominated manufacturing powerhouse.

The second orbit seems to include measures needed to establish Washington's dominance over North America. He is urging Canada to become the 51st U.S. state, while seeking to acquire Greenland (under Danish sovereignty but geographically on the side of the North American continent, as maps of the Arctic Circle show). He has renamed the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, and intends to regain control of the Panama Canal. For Mr. Trump, it is in the important national interest of the United States to keep the entire North American continent within its territory or sphere of influence.

On the third circle sit the regions of the Eurasian continent, including Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. From Mr. Trump's point of view, the United States has declined because the country was caught up in the regions' troubles during the 20th century, and its wealth was drained in the process as it was flattered as the leader of the world. For him, these regions are subject to "deals" where U.S. interests should be expanded. Trump's statements about asking for rare earth products in return for support for Ukraine against Russia, and evicting Palestinians from Gaza so that the U.S. can own and rebuild the strip as a resort, show his transactional view of the world.

It is true that he conducted his own strategic calculation. In his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Trump generously affirmed his commitment to the U.S.-Japan alliance, probably because he aimed to put pressure on China, America's biggest competitor, and because Japan had announced a large-scale investment in the United States. On the other hand, he seems to be cold to the European narrative that sees Russia as a threat. He apparently aims to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow and have Europe shoulder a greater security burden on its own while reducing Washington's obligations on the continent.

The fourth circle would be the universal world, such as humanity and the Earth. An international order based on international law and a global governance mechanism to solve global issues seem, for Trump, to be nothing more than a plot to weaken the United States, or nonsense that does not resonate with him at all. Besides withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change as was expected before the launch of the administration, the Trump administration has also announced its withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) and has not hesitated to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) for prosecuting Israeli officials.

Even more surprising is the fact that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), a government agency, has effectively been shut down without even a congressional debate. Established during the Kennedy administration, USAID was an organization that sought to win the support of so-called developing countries, especially by demonstrating a positive attitude toward solving humanitarian and global problems such as poverty, epidemics, and disasters. Elon Musk, the world's richest man mandated by Trump, used the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to freeze the agency's budget and lay off 1,600 USAID employees.

Back to the 19th century

Once again, it can be said that Mr. Trump's worldview is the exact opposite of what has been pursued by U.S. presidents in the 20th century. It is interesting to note that Trump speaks highly of McKinley, a president of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. McKinley imposed high tariffs, expanded U.S. interests in the Spanish-American War, and issued an open-door declaration regarding China.

Historically, after the assassination of McKinley in 1901 his successor Theodore Roosevelt started the attempt to let the United States aspire to reform the world. President Woodrow Wilson entered World War I for the sake of "democratic security," and President Franklin D. Roosevelt pursued the "Four Freedoms." For Trump, this seems to be a mistake and he wants a return to the McKinley era.

Of course, the feasibility of Trump's policies is another matter. Presumably, many of his aides understand the contradictory and outdated nature of Trump's worldview and are trying to use him to achieve their own policy objectives, such as hard-line measures against China and/or tariff pressure to win concessions for the United States.

However, even with a certain degree of reversal after the Trump administration, the era of the United States appointing itself as the world's policeman will not return. Unlike the days when deterrence functioned through the forward deployment of U.S. forces backed by the nuclear threat, controlling current local conflicts today require a certain amount of manpower. The United States is the most powerful country in the world, but its population is less than 5% of the world's and its manpower is limited accordingly. In fact, Vice President J.D. Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses, and others who have served in Afghanistan and Iraq are aware of the limits of U.S. burden-sharing to achieve stability in conflict zones.

The growing role of Japan

The world is thus entering a new stage, and Japan's challenges are heavy. It will be necessary for Tokyo to assume, to some extent, the role in global governance that the United States is abandoning, to strengthen cooperation with other friendly countries while maintaining cooperation with the United States, and to make greater efforts on defense capabilities. On the other hand, Japan's constraints on human, economic and financial resources are also obvious. When the world order changes drastically, countries are required to find solutions that satisfy the stability of their domestic systems, the soundness of their political and economic order, and appropriate external security strategies. Today, we live in such an era.