The Japanese government has announced plans to increase production of rice and significantly boost exports. This marks a change of course for Japan's agricultural policies, which have held down rice production to prioritize price stability.

But can the country's staple food be protected under this shift?

As Japanese cuisine has gained recognition internationally, rice exports have increased by 2.6 times over the past five years. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries aims to accelerate this trend, setting an export target of 350,000 metric tons by 2030 -- eight times the current level. If achieved, this would represent about 5% of domestic rice production.

Forming the driving force behind this policy change are rice shortages that began last year.

Amid the continued decline in domestic consumption, the government had been limiting production to keep rice prices from dropping. However, a recovery in inbound tourism-related demand and a drop in the quality of rice crops due to extreme heat, among other factors, have led to a supply-demand crunch, causing prices to soar even after the release of rice reserves.

The government seeks to boost production for overseas markets, with the intention of redirecting some of that rice to domestic use in times of shortage. There have also been calls to promote exports as a way to strengthen food security.

Shifting toward increased production is a reasonable move. However, there are questions about how it will be done, and whether the goals are realistically achievable.

The agriculture ministry plans to designate around 30 regions as export hubs. It claims that by consolidating farmland and expanding operations, it will reduce production costs.

However, Japan has traditionally prioritized taste over yield and worked on improving rice varieties accordingly. If the goal is to boost exports, a shift to higher-yielding varieties may be necessary.

Simply getting caught up in price competition with cheaper foreign rice is no route to success. Japan must build brand strategy to leverage its strengths, and it will be necessary to address risks such as currency fluctuations.

There are also questions about compatibility with free trade rules. Support through subsidies for exploring new markets may violate WTO regulations, which prohibit export aid.

More fundamentally, can selective support for certain production areas really strengthen the overall industry? With the farming population aging, there are concerns that rice shortages may become more severe in the future. Reviewing the current de facto acreage reduction policy and reinforcing production bases are more urgent matters for the government to deal with.

A system is needed to raise the population of motivated farmers by guaranteeing a certain level of income, and promote both increased production and cost efficiency. The Japanese government must swiftly work on reforms to revitalize the country's staple food industry.