TOKYO -- Ahead of Japan's upcoming general election on Oct. 27, the Mainichi Shimbun carried out an opinion survey on Oct. 15 and 16, exploring the early situation by incorporating our findings obtained from news gathering activities as well.

There are 289 single-seat constituencies and 176 proportional representation blocs up for grabs in the country's 50th House of Representatives election. The Mainichi poll results are hinting that the ruling coalition comprised of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito will likely retain a majority of the total 465 seats.

While losing some of the 256 seats it had before the lower house was dissolved, the LDP alone may still be able to secure a majority, or 233 seats, if its candidates win many of the closely contested electoral districts.

Meanwhile, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) appears set to increase its share of the chamber from the 98 seats it had prior to the dissolution.

In the survey, voter intent in nearly half the constituencies remained unclear, meaning that the situation could change drastically going forward.

The LDP is expected to win between 203 and 250 seats, while the CDP could secure between 117 and 163 seats. Komeito, which had 32 seats, is expected to send 24 to 29 members to the lower chamber.

Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party) may fall from 43 seats before the dissolution to between 28 and 34 seats after the election. The Democratic Party for the People may increase its representation from seven to between 13 and 20 seats, while the Japanese Communist Party can be expected to see its number of representatives roughly halve from 10 to five or six. Reiwa Shinsengumi could double its count from three to six members, while the Social Democratic Party will likely retain its single seat, and the right-wing Sanseito may lose its sole representative.

One other party could gain a seat, and the number of independent representatives is expected to drop slightly from 14 to between 11 and 13.

(Japanese original by Tetsuya Kageyama, Political News Department)

The poll, jointly conducted with broadcaster TBS Television and the Japan News Network, was carried out via smartphone using the "d-Survey" method developed by the Social Survey Research Center with the support of NTT Docomo. A random sample of users were selected from among about 70 million members 18 or over of Docomo's "d Point Club." Participation request emails were sent out, and valid responses were received from 189,642 people.