Expectations are growing that Yoshihiko Noda, the new leader of the main opposition party, could mount a strong challenge in the Oct. 27 general election, as he seeks to win over supporters of the conservative-leaning ruling bloc.

Noda, who served as prime minister for around a year until December 2012 when the predecessor of his Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was in power, has pledged to shift the left-leaning CDPJ toward the center to improve its chances against the Liberal Democratic Party.

Analysts say Noda, known as an eloquent lawmaker, has gained popularity among Japan's unaffiliated voters, who often prove decisive in elections, since being elected as CDPJ leader just weeks before new LDP chief Shigeru Ishiba became prime minister on Oct. 1.

Earlier this month, a Kyodo News poll showed Ishiba's cabinet with a 50.7 percent approval rating, while 50.4 percent of respondents expressed hope in Noda's leadership, underscoring that public support for the two party leaders is nearly equal.

The CDPJ might perform better than in previous elections, but it is unlikely to wrest power from the LDP as Noda has struggled to build cooperation among the opposition camp and clearly differentiate himself from Ishiba.

Toru Yoshida, a professor in political science at Doshisha University, said, "The LDP has a winning coalition from the center to the right, so it's logical that the CDPJ would move in that direction" as a strategy to garner more votes in the upcoming election.

"Many centrist, nonaffiliated voters, however, don't vote based on ideology but rather on who can deliver," Yoshida said, adding, "Noda is being tested on how well he can offer a sense of security and trust" during the 12-day campaign period.

This year's general election represents the fastest turnaround from a new prime minister being installed to a public vote in postwar Japanese history, triggering criticism that the LDP is seeking to deflect scrutiny from a damaging slush funds scandal.

Ishiba's sudden decision to dissolve the House of Representatives has also prevented the CDPJ and other opposition parties, such as the right-leaning Japan Innovation Party, from agreeing to unify their candidates to defeat LDP rivals.

"A successful opposition bloc requires a mix of neoliberal and social democratic parties," Yoshida said. "Noda's best hope would have been further cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party, but the time has been too short."

On Sept. 23, Noda's centrist pitch beat out the party's symbol of its liberal wing, Yukio Edano, in the CDPJ leadership race. Ironically, Noda's success may have prompted the LDP to choose Ishiba as its president on Sept. 27 over his right-wing rival Sanae Takaichi.

Ultimately, the CDPJ, which has adopted "the greatest form of political reform is a change of government" as its campaign slogan, is led by a new leader with ideological similarities to Ishiba, who has positioned himself toward the center.

Masaki Hata, an associate professor at Osaka University of Economics, called Noda's centrist strategy risky as it may lead major parties to target the same pool of voters, potentially splitting the opposition vote that might otherwise go to the CDPJ.

In addition, Noda's previous leadership record could undermine his efforts to convince the public that the opposition is capable of running the country, given that his premiership ended in a defeat to the LDP under the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The party's crushing setback followed the passage of politically sensitive legislation to hike the consumption tax, as well as voter disillusionment in its ability to keep its promises amid internal divisions, just three years after its landslide victory in 2019.

As disappointment in the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan is "still strong," the choice of Noda "risks turning off voters who remember that time," said Hata, citing opinion polls that show the party's support rates are sluggish.

The son of a Japan Self-Defense Forces officer, Noda has a reputation as an evocative speaker, once famously likening himself to an unglamorous loach working diligently in the mud to reflect his humble, hardworking self-image. He received cross-party praise for a speech eulogizing Abe after his assassination in 2022.

The CDPJ has argued that it aims to break the LDP's majority in the lower house election under Noda's leadership, but many analysts share the view that the ruling coalition is expected to win while it may lose seats against a backdrop of the slush funds scandal.

Nevertheless, the CDPJ "could create a sense that the party is reviving, which could give Noda momentum heading into the 2025 House of Councillors election" if it can achieve its highest seat count since the DPJ's 2012 loss, Yoshida said.