From heat waves to torrential rain and forest fires, countries around the world have been hit by serious natural disasters triggered by global warming. No country is immune from such damage, and it is critical to avoid putting the brakes on international cooperation.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his cautious stance on climate action, is returning to the White House following his reelection. During his first term that began in 2017, Trump announced that the United States would pull out of the Paris Agreement, which stipulates international rules for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. returned to the agreement under the subsequent administration of Joe Biden, but Trump, in his election pledge, promised to withdraw from it again.

This could be a major setback for international global warming countermeasures. Countries must work together to urge a change of heart from the president.

The average global temperature last year hit a record high, and 2024 is expected to surpass this to become the hottest to date. The goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting the global average temperature increase to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is hanging by a thread.

Momentum for greenhouse gas reductions at risk of declining

At the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Azerbaijan, which opened on Nov. 11, the stance of countries is being questioned as the world considers how to escape from this precarious situation.

The biggest focus is increasing assistance from developed countries to developing countries. Currently this stands at some $100 billion (about 15 trillion yen) per year, but developing countries say they need over $1 trillion annually to mitigate the increasing damage caused by global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Japan, the U.S. and Europe, however, are cautious about increasing the amount of assistance. They are asking China, the world's second largest economy after the U.S. and the greatest emitter of greenhouse gases, and other emerging countries to share the burden.

With the reemergence of Trump, it is possible that momentum toward boosting financial support could be dampened. This in turn could weaken the enthusiasm of developing countries that have attempted to reduce emissions while counting on this support.

If Trump announces another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement when he takes office in January, it will become difficult to gain cooperation from emerging nations to reduce global emissions.

The repercussions would be more serious than during Trump's first term, when the withdrawal period effectively lasted for just three months, as another withdrawal would last at least until the expiry of the president's term in 2029.

Trump has placed an emphasis on his own country's oil and gas industries, advocating increased fossil fuel production with the slogan "Drill, baby, drill." In his first term, he placed climate action on the back burner, scrapping previous environmental regulations.

Under the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act, which promotes investment in decarbonization, was passed, but it is expected that Trump will revisit this as well.

Reductions in emissions, however, are the global trend. Companies that do not adopt environmental measures have been removed from supply chains, and institutional investors have begun to shy away from them. In this age, decarbonization industries, including renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, are driving economic growth.

In the United States, individual states are backing environmental measures, with California, for example, promoting electric vehicles, and they have urged companies to make innovative changes.

Approximately 5,000 entities, including local bodies and businesses, have set goals to reduce emissions by over 50% by 2030. Together they account for more than 70% of the country's GDP. It should be the federal government's role to back such initiatives. There are also many merits in doing so from the perspective of strengthening industrial competitiveness.

International collaboration put to the test

The U.S., a key player in climate negotiations, has long changed its approach with each new administration, leaving the international community at a loose end. The administration of Bill Clinton advanced the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which obligated developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions for the first time. But then the administration of George W. Bush made an about-face and announced it would not implement the protocol, citing that it would weaken the nation's international competitiveness, which delayed the protocol's entry into force. The government of Barack Obama, moving in step with China, ratified the Paris Agreement. The decision by both countries, which account for more than 40% of global emissions, paved the way for the agreement to come into force at an early stage.

The Paris Agreement calls on all countries and regions to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It must not be hollowed out at the whim of a country pursuing its own short-term interests.

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) forecasts that if the situation remains unchanged, the temperature increase could reach 3.1 C by the end of this century. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated during a meeting of leaders at COP29, "There is no time to lose. ... Climate action is not optional. It's an imperative."

What the world needs now is a spirit of mutual assistance to overcome the climate crisis together. The unity of the global community is being put to the test.