Syria's half-century of autocratic rule under the Assad family has come to an end after a protracted civil war. The urgent task ahead is to stabilize the nation and prevent further destabilization of the Middle East.

Rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have taken control of Damascus. President Bashar al-Assad has fled abroad, reportedly granted asylum by Russia on humanitarian grounds.

HTS has proclaimed that the oppressive Assad regime has been toppled. They continued that this victory belongs to all Syrians and heralds a new chapter in Syrian history.

The fall of Assad marks a significant milestone in the wave of change that began with the 2011 Arab Spring pro-democracy movement, which saw autocratic regimes collapse including in Egypt and Libya.

The legacy of Assad's rule

The Assad dynasty began in 1970 when Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, seized power through a military coup. Despite being a member of the Alawite minority, Hafez ruled with an iron grip, employing the military and intelligence agencies to suppress dissent. His brutal crackdown of a 1982 uprising in the city of Hama reportedly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.

Hafez al-Assad's second son Bashar continued this legacy after inheriting power in 2000. His regime resisted democratization, and the 2011 Arab Spring protests spiraled into a civil war between opposition groups and the government, further complicated by the rise of extremist groups like Islamic State (IS).

Despite international condemnation for alleged use of chemical weapons against his own people, Assad retained support from Russia and Iran, both keen to preserve their strategic foothold in Syria against Europe and the United States.

Attention now turns to the challenging task of rebuilding governance. Some senior figures in the political arms of opposition groups are advocating for an 18-month transitional government to draft a new constitution and prepare for democratic elections.

However, the anti-Assad opposition remains splintered. HTS has its roots in al-Qaeda. Its members include former senior officers of the Syrian army who revolted against the regime. And while opposition forces cooperated while they were fighting Assad, observers expect clashes of opinion over the direction of the country going forward. Syria's minority Kurdish forces and IS may also seek to exploit the power vacuum.

Meanwhile, an HTS-led government may fail to gain legitimacy internationally, as countries like the United States have designated it a terrorist organization. This could hinder recognition and block essential United Nations support. Attention needs to be given to preventing a power vacuum from opening.

Nations like Egypt saw Islamist groups gain prominence post-revolution. This set up collides with those who cannot abide religious ideology being forced upon them, and these clashes have set back democratization. Syria must chart a different course.

Addressing the humanitarian crisis

The Assad regime's fall has significantly shifted Middle Eastern power dynamics. Iran has lost a key ally, complicating its weapons shipments and other support for the Hezbollah Shia militant group in Lebanon. Meanwhile, a hardline Islamist regime in Syria could allow government weaponry to fall into the hands of extremist organizations like IS, further destabilizing the region. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on IS positions and Syrian arms depots reflect these fears.

The humanitarian situation is critical. More than 500,000 people are said to have died in the civil war, and about 12 million people -- roughly half of the population -- have been displaced, both internally and abroad. Achieving peace and stability as soon as possible is essential to enable those displaced to return.

Yet, there is concern that the major powers will lose interest, leading to waning international support. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has distanced himself, declaring, "This is not our fight." Russia, strained by its war against Ukraine, has lost its leeway.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once remarked, "No war is possible without Egypt, and no peace is possible without Syria." His insight underscores Syria's pivotal role. The global community, led by the U.N. and Arab nations, must ensure Syria's political transition fosters stability and peace in the region.