SAITAMA -- Rice prices in Japan have continued to surge since last summer's "rice crisis of the Reiwa era." Despite the government's planned release of 210,000 metric tons of stockpiled rice, consumers are wondering if this will lead to any relief, while one farmer in Saitama Prefecture spoke of harvests "halved" by hot weather and stink bug infestations, suggesting farmers aren't necessarily reaping the benefits of higher prices.

At the rice section in a supermarket in the city of Saitama, north of Tokyo, a housewife on maternity leave with three young children aged 4 months to 3 years sighed. "It's expensive. But I have no choice but to buy it, even when the price is high," she said. The government hopes the release of reserve rice will lower prices, but she is skeptical, pointing out, "Last summer, they said prices would stabilize with the new rice, but they didn't drop. I have no expectations."

A sign reading "out of stock" greeted customers right after the store opened at 9 a.m. According to the supermarket, deliveries arrive at 10 a.m., but recently there have been times when the requested amounts have not arrived. On the shelves were 5-kilogram bags of Koshihikari rice from Niigata Prefecture and Akitakomachi rice from Akita Prefecture, priced at 4,080 yen (about $27.55) excluding tax, with the cheapest rice selling for 3,780 yen (about $25.55). A supermarket public relations representative commented, "I'd say it's probably about 1,000 yen (roughly $6.80) more expensive than last year."

A gap between statistics and farmers' reality

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced that the volume of rice produced in 2024 increased by 180,000 tons compared to 2023. However, as of the end of this January, major aggregators like the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (JA Zen-Noh) had gathered just 2.21 million tons -- 230,000 tons fewer than over the corresponding period the previous year.

The ministry believes rice producers and small collectors are holding onto stock, anticipating higher rice prices. The government accordingly decided to release stockpiled rice to alleviate the blockage and ensure smooth market distribution. It plans to sell this rice to collectors through bidding from mid-March.

However, even since the announcement of the rice release, prices have not dropped. According to the agriculture ministry, the average price of a 5-kg bag at some 1,000 supermarkets nationwide during the period from Feb. 10 to 16 stood at 3,892 yen (about $26.30) -- some 1.9 times higher than a year earlier. Those familiar with the situation have voiced concerns not only about distribution issues, but the government's loose supply-and-demand forecasts.

According to figures released by the agriculture ministry, demand for rice produced in 2021, 2022 and 2023 exceeded production, resulting in a shortage of 600,000 tons over the three years. Meanwhile, a crop statistics survey whose results were announced in December last year found that production in 2024 reached 6.79 million tons. Demand was projected to reach 6.73 million tons, and supply was forecast to be sufficient. But if consumption matches the 7.04 million tons recorded in 2023, there will still be a shortfall of over 200,000 tons this year.

There is also said to be a gap between statistical figures and the reality felt by farmers. A report on crop conditions in Saitama Prefecture, released by the Kanto Regional Agricultural Administration Office in December, gave a crop index of 97, meaning crops were slightly poorer than average. Yet, some farmers in Saitama Prefecture are expressing severe concerns, saying it is far worse in reality.

Harvest 'halved' by heat and stink bug damage

One farmer in western Saitama Prefecture lamented, "The areas where we planted rice in late June saw noticeably poor growth due to the high temperatures, and with damage from stink bugs on top of that, the harvest halved." Another farmer in the southern part of the prefecture commented, "The damage from stink bugs was terrible, with the harvest for late crops reaching only 10-20% of usual levels."

According to the prefecture's agricultural safety division, the eastern region, which saw heavy stink bug damage, recorded a sevenfold increase in the pests as of the end of August 2024 versus a year prior. The prefecture has earmarked 14.88 million yen (about $101,200) in the initial draft budget for the new fiscal year for emergency countermeasure expenses, and is moving ahead to investigate the extent of the damage.

A farmer managing 14 hectares of rice paddies in western Saitama Prefecture commented, "I'm doubtful that the harvest was as abundant as the government said it was. Some brokers might be stockpiling to last through the fall, but I imagine there's not enough rice to begin with."

(Japanese original by Shoko Washizu, Saitama Bureau)